Global aluminum market: Russia could lose export revenue, Europe will see higher prices

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Aluminum – Market Analysis, Forecasts, Size, Trends and Outlook’. Here is a summary of the main findings of the report.

The global aluminum market will experience significant changes this year. Due to sanctions, many key importers may refuse purchases from Russia, which could lead to global supply chain disruptions. Russia is the second largest supplier to the global aluminum market, accounting for 11% of total supply.

About 78% of Russian aluminum exports go to ten countries, namely Turkey (20%), Japan (14%), China (10%), the Netherlands (9%), the United (7%), Greece (5%). ), Chinese Taiwan (4%), Italy (3%), South Korea (3%) and Norway (3%). Financial and logistical sanctions imposed on Russia over its conflict with Ukraine could damage supply chains, leading to local shortages of metals in European countries and the United States and higher oil prices. aluminum. Russia could lose its share of global aluminum exports due to possible secondary sanctions on countries that continue to import from the country. Competitors like Canada and India are also likely to try to squeeze Russia out of the market.

Aluminum exports from Russia

In 2021, the amount of aluminum exported from Russia soared to 4 million tonnes, up 50% from the previous year. In terms of value, supplies soared to $7.9 billion.

Turkey (807,000 tonnes), Japan (542,000 tonnes) and China (410,000 tonnes) were the top destinations for Russia’s aluminum exports, with a combined share of 44% of total volume. By value, Turkey ($1.5 billion), Japan ($1.1 billion) and China ($720 million) were the world’s largest markets for aluminum exported from Russia, together accounting for 42 % of total supplies.

In terms of top destination countries, China saw the highest growth rate in export value in 2021. Supplies to China more than tripled, while shipments for other leaders saw drops. more modest growth rates.

World aluminum exports in 2020

The amount of aluminum exported worldwide amounted to 24 million tonnes in 2020, up 2.3% from the previous year. In terms of value, the supplies amounted to $44.7 billion.

Shipments from the top eight aluminum exporters, namely Canada (2.9 million tonnes), Russia (2.7 million tonnes), India (2.1 million tonnes), United Arab Emirates (2.0 million tons), the Netherlands (1.9 million tons), Malaysia (1.5 million tons), Australia (1.4 million tons) and Norway (1. 3 million tonnes) accounted for more than half of total supplies. The following exporters – South Africa (594,000 tonnes), Germany (482,000 tonnes), Saudi Arabia (476,000 tonnes), Bahrain (469,000 tonnes) and the United States (424,000 tonnes) – each finished with a share 10% of the total volume.

In terms of value, Canada ($5.4 billion), Russia ($4.2 billion) and India ($3.9 billion) were the countries with the highest export levels. high in 2020, with a combined share of 30% of global supplies. The Netherlands, United Arab Emirates, Norway, Malaysia, Australia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Bahrain and the United States are slightly behind, accounting for 43% additional.

Major Aluminum Importers

In 2020, the United States (3.5 million tons), followed by the Netherlands (2.2 million tons), Japan (2.1 million tons), Germany (1.9 million tonnes), Malaysia (1.6 million tonnes), South Korea (1.4 million tonnes), and Turkey (1.2 million tonnes) were the main aluminum importers, mixing together 57% of total purchases. Italy (1,058,000 tons), Poland (675,000 tons), Spain (657,000 tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (602,000 tons), Thailand (583,000 tons) and Mexico (512,000 tons) follow far behind the leaders.

In terms of value, the United States ($7 billion), the Netherlands ($4.1 billion) and Germany ($3.8 billion) were the countries with the highest import levels. higher in 2020, with a combined share of 32% of global supplies.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Mary I. Bruner