Europe Roundup: Euro Plunges Against Dollar, European Stocks Fall, Gold Stays Range, Oil Rises On OPEC Warning And Easing Of COVID Restrictions From Shanghai – April 12, 2022

Market overview

• March German WPI (Annual) 22.6%, previous 16.6%

• Germany Mar WPI (MoM) 6.9%, previous 1.7%

• Change in the number of claimants in March in the UK -46.9K, -48.1K previous

• Average February profit excluding UK bonus 4.0%, forecast 4.0%, 3.8% previous

• UK February Average Earnings Index + bonus 5.4%, forecast 5.4%, previous 4.8%

• UK unemployment rate in February 3.8%, forecast 3.8%, previous 3.9%

• Change in February employment in the United Kingdom over 3 months/3 months (monthly) 50,000 forecast, -12,000 previous

• German March CPI (monthly) 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 0.9% previous

• April German Economic Sentiment ZEW -41.0, -30.8, -48.0 forecast, -39.3 previous

• Current German April ZEW conditions -30.8, -35.0 forecast, -21.4 previous

• German Economic Sentiment April ZEW -41.0, -41.1 forecast, 38.7 previous

• March US Core CPI (monthly) 0.3%, forecast 0.5%, 0.5%

• US March CPI (monthly) 1.2% forecast, 0.8% prior

• US Mar Core CPI (YoY) 6.5%, 6.6% forecast, 6.4% previous

• CPI index for March in the United States, nos 287.50, 287.41 forecast, 283.72 previous

• US March CPI (Annual) 8.5%, 8.4% forecast, 7.9% previous

• US March CPI (monthly) 1.2%, 1.2%, previous 0.8%

Forward-looking economic data (GMT)

• 12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 14.3% previous

•14:00 United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 41.0 previous

•15:00 United States March Cleveland CPI (monthly) 0.5% previous

• US Federal Budget Balance in March -191.0 billion forecast, -217.0 billion previous

Future Outlook – Economic Events and Other Releases (GMT)

• 4:10 pm Brainard, member of the FOMC, takes the floor


EUR/USD: The euro fell on Tuesday, unable to hold onto post-election French gains as the dollar held firm, supported by high US yields. The euro fell 0.19% to $1.08625 at 08:19 GMT, after jumping to $1.09550 the day before on news that incumbent President Emmanuel Macron had beaten far-right challenger Marine Le Pen at the first round of the presidential election. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0941 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.0966 (MA11). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0846 (daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0811 (23.6%fib).

GBP/USD: The pound was a bit lower against a stronger dollar on Tuesday, but held up against the euro as currency markets priced in fresh inflation data from the US. The pound is broadly down against the dollar so far this year as rising US Treasury yields on expectations of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve pushed the dollar higher. As of 11:19 GMT, the pound was down 0.1% on the day against the dollar at $1.30145. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054 (5DMA), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.3083 (50% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3015 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2969 (BB lower).

USD/CHF: The dollar stabilized on Tuesday as the dollar remained firm on rising expectations that the Fed will soon raise interest rates. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s value against six peers, was back above 100 to touch its highest level in nearly two years. The quarterly earnings season in the United States is expected to begin this week with Wall Street banks. In Europe, the reporting season will kick into high gear later this month, with analysts predicting a 19.9% ​​rise in earnings for STOXX 600 companies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9310 (23, 6% fib), an upside break can trigger a move higher towards 0.9345 (23.6% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9292 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9253 (61.8%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as the dollar remained firm, supported by strong US yields. The dollar’s recent gains against the Japanese yen have been most striking. The greenback has gained nearly 10% against the Japanese currency over the past three months. It was trading up 0.25% at 125.63 yen on Tuesday, very close to the June 2015 high of 125.77 reached the previous day. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government is watching the yen closely and that excessive volatility and disorderly movements could have a negative effect on the economy. A strong resistance can be seen at 126.67(23.6%fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 126.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 124.80 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 124.43 (50% fib).

Summary of actions

European stocks fell to their lowest level in nearly a week on Tuesday as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank slumped after a major stake sale, as investors awaited U.S. inflation data that could boost bets on higher interest rate hikes.

At (GMT 12:46 GMT), Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 was last down 0.52%, Germany’s Dax was last down 0.48%, France’s CAC was down 0.12 % for the last time.

Summary of raw materials

Gold prices held steady on Tuesday as investors braced for likely hot U.S. inflation data that would shore up bets on aggressive Federal Reserve action to rein in price pressures.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,955.61 an ounce at 11:53 GMT, after hitting its highest in nearly a month on Monday. US gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,956.60.

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as Shanghai’s easing of some COVID-19 restrictions eased concerns over Chinese demand and OPEC warned it would be impossible to replace potential supply losses. of Russia.

Brent crude futures rose $3.26, or 3.31%, to $101.74 a barrel as of 10:02 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate rose $3.01 , or 3.19%, to $97.30. Both contracts lost around 4% on Monday.

Mary I. Bruner