Europe roundup: Euro gains ahead of ECB announcement, European stocks slide, gold plunges, oil prices rise despite rising US inventories – June 8, 2022

Market overview

• Swiss unemployment rate in May nsa 2.1%, forecast 2.1%, 2.3% previous

• Swiss unemployment rate in May sa 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous

• Halifax UK House Price Index (Annual) 10.5%, previous 10.8%

• UK May Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 1.0%, 0.8% forecast, 1.1% previous

• German industrial production in April (monthly) 0.7%, forecast 1.0%, previous -3.9%

• April French trade balance -12.2 billion, -12.2 billion forecast, -12.4 billion previous

• French imports of April 58.9 billion, 58.1 billion previous

• French April current account -3.40B, previous -3.20B

• French exports of April 46.7 billion, previous 45.7 billion

• French May Reserve Assets Total 237,654.0 M Previous 245,991.0 M

• UK May Construction PMI 56.4, 56.6 forecast, 58.2 previous

• EU GDP (QT) (Q1) 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous

• EU Employment Change (Annual) (Q1) 2.9%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous

• EU GDP (Annual) (Q1) 5.4%, 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous

• EU Employment Change (TQ) (Q1) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous

Forward-looking economic data

•2:00 PM US April Wholesale Sales (monthly) Previous 1.7%

• 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 2.1% previous

•14:00 United States Crude Oil Imports 0.083 M previous

• 2:00 p.m. Gasoline stocks in the United States 1.075 M forecast, -0.711 M previous

•14:30Cushing’s crude oil inventories in the United States 0.256M previous

• 2:30 p.m. Crude oil inventories in the United States -1.917 M forecast, -5.068 M previous

Future Outlook – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant event

fxbeat

EUR/USD: The euro stabilized against the dollar on Wednesday as investors focused on Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and Friday’s US CPI data. Investors increased their bets on ECB rate hikes and as European markets opened, money markets were pricing in 75 basis points of rate hikes in September. With the bank widely expected to start hikes in July and move in 25 basis point increments, the pricing implies traders now expect its hikes to include a rare 50 basis point move in a single meeting by September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2761 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.2844 (50% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2649 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair down to 1.2557 (23rd May low).

GBP/USD: The pound fell on Wednesday, remaining close to a near three-week low reached this week against the US dollar, amid investor jitters over a vote of confidence in British Prime Minister Boris Johnson which made him politically vulnerable. Heightened political uncertainty has added further pressure on the pound, which has fallen more than 7% this year, weighed down by Britain’s bleak growth outlook. The British currency fell 0.5% against a rising US dollar at $1.2528 at 0840 GMT after hitting its lowest level since May 19 at $1.2433 on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2606 (50% fib), a break up can trigger a move higher towards 1.2688 (30th May high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2540 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2430. (23.6% fiber).

USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors look to US inflation data for more direction on interest rates. The underlying consumer price index (CPI) in the United States, due on Friday, is expected to have gained 5.9% on the year, after an annual increase of 6.2% in April, according to a survey. The dollar index fell 0.176% to 102.270, with the euro up 0.14% to $1.0709. After hitting a nearly 20-year high of 105.01 on May 13, the dollar index is back to around the 102 level, although Friday’s strong payrolls report helped the greenback record its rally. first weekly gain in three. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9773 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 0.9852 (23.6% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9706 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair down to 0.9657 (5DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Wednesday as traders awaited a Fed meeting that is expected to leave Japan alone among its peers to stick to ultra-loose monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points next week and again in July, but Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials gave no indication of a move away from dovish metrics. The yen therefore lost more than 4.5%, from 127.09 to the dollar to 133.22 in eight sessions, falling hard on the crosses as investors see soaring consumer prices force central banks around the world. worldwide to reduce demand with rapid increases. The yen last traded at 133.02 to the dollar. A strong resistance can be seen at 134.13 (daily high), a break up can trigger a rise towards 135.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.16 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.11. (50% fiber).

Summary of actions

European stocks slid on Wednesday and Wall Street futures were in the red as fears that central bank tightening would stifle global growth weighed on markets.

At (GMT 11:06 a.m.), Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 last traded at 0.12%, Germany’s Dax was down 1.05%, France’s CAC ended down 0.88 %.

fxbeat

European stocks slid on Wednesday and Wall Street futures were in the red as fears that central bank tightening would stifle global growth weighed on markets.

At (10:30 GMT), Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 last traded at 0.28%, Germany’s Dax was down 0.49%, France’s CAC was down 0.63% .

Summary of raw materials

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rebounded as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for more direction on interest rates.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,847 an ounce at 0733 GMT, while US gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,850.20.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, despite a likely rise in U.S. oil inventories, due to the easing of Chinese COVID-19 lockdowns and a possible strike by Norwegian oil workers.

Brent crude futures were up $1.01, or 0.8%, at $121.58 a barrel at 0927 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $120.62 a barrel, up $1.21 or 1%.

Mary I. Bruner